Core tips: electric bicycles will probably replace bicycles rather than cars, which will only reduce energy efficiency and increase energy demand. Of course, this is likely to happen; in fact, people now simply believe that electric bicycles and electric cars are just replacing existing technologies.

The recent transformation of transportation mode in Contemporary Chinese cities is one of the most significant developments in the global environment. After the collapse of the US auto demand market two years ago, China has jumped to the world's largest auto market. In 2004, the total number of vehicles kept in China was 27 million 400 thousand, of which 9 million 200 thousand were cars; by 2010, the total number of vehicles had increased to 90 million 900 thousand, and the car was 40 million 300 thousand. China is expected to grow at 7%-8% in the middle of the year, which makes China a well deserved world greenhouse gas emitter, and soon its per capita carbon footprint will be staggering.
This rate of growth not only affects global climate change, but also has a lot of consequences: the rapid development of cities around the car "smooth" traffic (RE) planning, the level of atmospheric pollution is seriously to the level of unacceptable; China's car accident caused by the death rate in the forefront of the world; oil consumption. The possibility of rapid growth, geopolitical disputes and even conflicts has increased. China has about 970 million cars and consumes 33 billion barrels of crude oil per year, that is, 102% of the world's crude oil output. By contrast, the car crisis in the United States seems to be a bit of a mystery.
China is aware of these problems. Therefore, from the central to the local, the Chinese governments at all levels have given more and more input to a new development of the single technology - electric vehicle - and listed it as one of the seven "strategic emerging industries" in the next five years. The government announced that it would invest 100 billion yuan ($15 billion 700 million) in support in the next ten years, and it is expected that by 2015, there will be five hundred thousand electric vehicles to be put into use and a number of 5 million in 2020. Consumers who buy electric vehicles can save one hundred percent of the consumption tax and get 60000 yuan ($9400) from the central government. In some cities, the amount of the subsidy will double because of the support of the project.
Echoing this is that Chinese automobile companies attach great importance to the development of electric vehicles, which is hard to see in other areas. BYD (BYD) is the top regulator, while other private car companies and major SOEs have poured a lot of energy into the market. At the same time, with a series of reports from several major advisory bodies, think tanks and international institutions, including the world bank, international attention to the industry has been warming up.
There are several reasons for concern. From an economic point of view, several of the major international auto companies that hold monopolies seem to be experiencing a crisis; for Chinese companies, it is a quick and quick opportunity to take a leading position in emerging basic technology. From a institutional and geographic point of view, small, relatively small electric vehicles are more suitable for the densely populated areas of eastern China, while large, oil high cars are more suitable for open American suburbs.
From an innovative point of view, China and the emerging electronic, battery and nano technology and electric vehicle development complement each other. The last and important point is that, at least in many of China's densely populated areas, coal is still dominated by coal, and electric vehicles seem to be beneficial to the environment, especially air quality and greenhouse gas emissions, compared with traditional diesel engines.
But there's a big problem in electric cars.
First of all, electric vehicles which are still traditional cars can not solve the increasingly serious traffic congestion problem in Chinese cities. Second, electric cars may improve greenhouse gas emissions in some areas, but in other areas, especially in coal - rich northern and northeastern China, electric vehicles have no such advantage. Third, although China has already had its own advantages in scientific and technological innovation, China is still highly dependent on the innovative ability of foreign companies. Today, technology transfer, including the force of the Chinese automobile market, a joint venture company, is not ideal.
As China's ability to innovate is enhanced, the efficiency of coal-fired power stations is improved, and many cities impose restrictions on vehicle licences, all these concerns may be eliminated. But one thing jeopardized the fate of the grand plan of "turning to electric cars": Although the country has high subsidies, consumers have almost zero interest in electric cars.
Lack of charging facilities may explain this phenomenon to some extent. The Chinese government is tackling this problem, making more commitments than other countries. But does the attitude of consumers reflect the deeper problems of the government in the policy of electric vehicles? In addition, this reflects the weakness of China's low carbon innovation policy.
The policy is too concerned about the development of new "low carbon technology" and attempts to push the transportation system into a new low-carbon era through research and innovation alone. But more and more low carbon innovation research shows that these systems and their transformation are inevitably required by the two aspects of science and technology and society. The two aspects must be considered at the same time.
From this point of view, it is clear that any innovation, no matter how advanced or more environmentally friendly, will never be truly recognized and constantly updated without a large amount of consumer demand. And most of the progress of science and technology needs to be continued

There are several reasons for concern. From an economic point of view, several of the major international auto companies that hold monopolies seem to be experiencing a crisis; for Chinese companies, it is a quick and quick opportunity to take a leading position in emerging basic technology. From a institutional and geographic point of view, small, relatively small electric vehicles are more suitable for the densely populated areas of eastern China, while large, oil high cars are more suitable for open American suburbs.
From an innovative point of view, China and the emerging electronic, battery and nano technology and electric vehicle development complement each other. The last and important point is that, at least in many of China's densely populated areas, coal is still dominated by coal, and electric vehicles seem to be beneficial to the environment, especially air quality and greenhouse gas emissions, compared with traditional diesel engines.
But there's a big problem in electric cars.
First of all, electric vehicles which are still traditional cars can not solve the increasingly serious traffic congestion problem in Chinese cities. Second, electric cars may improve greenhouse gas emissions in some areas, but in other areas, especially in coal - rich northern and northeastern China, electric vehicles have no such advantage. Third, although China has already had its own advantages in scientific and technological innovation, China is still highly dependent on the innovative ability of foreign companies. Today, technology transfer, including the force of the Chinese automobile market, a joint venture company, is not ideal.
As China's ability to innovate is enhanced, the efficiency of coal-fired power stations is improved, and many cities impose restrictions on vehicle licences, all these concerns may be eliminated. But one thing jeopardized the fate of the grand plan of "turning to electric cars": Although the country has high subsidies, consumers have almost zero interest in electric cars.
Lack of charging facilities may explain this phenomenon to some extent. The Chinese government is tackling this problem, making more commitments than other countries. But does the attitude of consumers reflect the deeper problems of the government in the policy of electric vehicles? In addition, this reflects the weakness of China's low carbon innovation policy.
The policy is too concerned about the development of new "low carbon technology" and attempts to push the transportation system into a new low-carbon era through research and innovation alone. But more and more low carbon innovation research shows that these systems and their transformation are inevitably required by the two aspects of science and technology and society. The two aspects must be considered at the same time.
From this point of view, it is clear that any innovation, no matter how advanced or more environmentally friendly, will never be truly recognized and constantly updated without a large amount of consumer demand. Most technological progress needs to be constantly updated; otherwise, this potential innovative technology will be just a rough model without competitiveness.
Social and economic issues can not be avoided, but once solved, the road to success of low-carbon transformation will emerge. For example, perhaps some unexpected consumer groups will need both cheap and innovative technology, and these undesirable models may develop into an increasingly attractive, mature, highly competitive product. In this way, some of the existing technical concepts in society, such as the shape and function of the "car", and the use, ownership, manufacture, and purchase of the "car" may be redefined.
Such innovations are often referred to as "subversion" because they can overturn existing technology and the enterprise structure based on the development of existing technology.
What does all this have to do with the policy of electric cars and the Chinese government? There is an example of subversive and low carbon innovative products that can be used as an answer to this question. This product has been very successful, it is called electric bicycle. In this field, China has become a well deserved leader. From 2009 to 2010, there are about 120 million electric bicycles running on Chinese roads. It is cheap and high speed (up to 40 to 50 kilometers per hour). It can run freely in the crowded car tide, and can walk up and down the sidewalk at any time.
In addition, the market is dominated by China's small start-up companies, some of them have grown into large enterprises by their own technology. This shows that E-bike is an important subversive low-carbon innovation product in China. More importantly, it is lighter and more flexible than electric vehicles, so it is more "low carbon" and more energy efficient.
The most important thing about electric bicycles is that it may redefine the concept of "motor vehicle". By contrast, China's commitment to R & D of electric vehicles is only trying to transform the traditional car engine, and it is not successful.
Electric vehicles are conducting a high-profile experiment. The whole body is built around the removal of a heavy engine and the replacement of the core of the internal combustion engine. The electric bicycle industry has seized this pioneering redesign and has produced an electric concept car like E3W. This may be with other seemingly unrelated innovations, such as the improvement of the level of information and communication technology, the integration of digital technology into the design, the development of innovative way of carpool, and so on.
Of course, there are measures and voices against electric bicycles: several cities in China have issued a penal code or even a ban on electric bicycles; and, compared to electric cars, electric bicycles only weaken the potential negative environmental negative growth of lithium demand.

But the biggest objection is that the replacement of electric bicycles is likely to be a bicycle, not a car, which will only reduce energy efficiency and increase energy demand. Of course, this is likely to happen; in fact, people now simply believe that electric bicycles and electric cars are just replacing existing technologies. But this idea is not not to be changed. Moreover, the Chinese enterprises and consumers with subversive spirit can challenge the existing ideas by using new means of transportation and use, driven by a strong economic stimulus. These new electric bicycles or electric concept cars will make the "car" classification obsolete, hinder the development, and will not replace the "car" itself.
As a result, the overall transformation of Modern Urban Transportation Society - Science and technology system may indeed occur in China, and may depend mainly on the emergence of Chinese enterprises. But considering that China and the world are eager to achieve low carbon targets, urban traffic is one of the ways that can completely change the high carbon and twentieth Century American model, and the current strategy of looking for global leadership by developing (more) low carbon cars is unlikely to be a fruitful result.
Note: the Sino foreign dialogue is a bilingual website dedicated to environmental issues. Its headquarters is in London, and it is an independent non-profit organization. Tian Dawei is a lecturer in mobile migration research center, Lancaster University.
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